HAMMERSMITH Advertising LTD October 2020
PO Package N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. US soybean and soymeal prices relocated lower this week - both by USD 5 to 7 m/t. Winter wheat too relocated lower, also by USD 5 to 7 m/t. Corn prices had been quiet but did finish the week up by about USD 2 m/t which is definitely nothing main at all for corn. The weakness in the soybean prices is said to be credited to too little information regarding the US/China trade scenario for soybeans. China can be having serious problems with African Swine Fever with the pig people reported to be down by 40%. So, even once agreement is reached there may not be the same level of Chinese soybean needs as in past years. The early harvest of soybeans in a few areas is said to be showing a wide range of yields nonetheless it is prematurily . to say if total yield could possibly be up or down.
Not very much in the news for corn - freezing weather looks to be on the way, but this may be good for the upcoming harvest simply because the bottom will be hard. According to the USDA the corn maturity quantities are behind the standard level at 86% mature versus a more normal 97%. Harvest to date is at just 30% compared to the five-year average of 47%. The US farmers can catch up the harvest rapidly, so this number most likely means small on the costs. There has been a drop in ethanol creation that may mean lower corn use, but this is probably only short-term. We will have to watch the harvest to state which way prices could move. Professionals are saying that winter wheat prices dipped because of technical selling but that prices are anticipated to move a little higher as the planting of wintertime wheat is usually slower than in previous years. FOB interface or location specified. All of the low costed DDGS appears to have disappeared from the market as charges for November shipment moved higher by about USD 7 to 8 m/t.
If there was a short-term surplus of DDGS it really is now something of the past. However, as I have seen in my email this week, buyers in Asia are still hoping to book last week's prices. Corn gluten feed prices had been stable this week - which is approximately normal for corn gluten feed. However, corn gluten food prices did move just a little higher but just a little. I had a vendor of corn gluten meal (CGM) speak to me this week about the possibility of CGM exports to Egypt but sadly European prices are usually (or nearly always) way too high for export versus US CGM. Europe includes a captive marketplace for CGM because of a very, very, very high import tariff, so prices in European countries tend to be extremely high. It is interesting that I was informed this week that my US export prices for feed quality poultry meal are much too low, but this may be due to a notable difference in understanding --- therefore, I've changed to description of US poultry food to poultry by-product meal.
The prices shown in this section ought to be quite accurate as they are acquired from good marketplace sources including the Jacobsen International Animal Protein Report. Prices in Asia for meats and bone meal (MBM) are reported to be a little lower this week --- seems to be many sellers and a dearth of buyers. Australia is still looking forward to acceptance to ship MBM to Indonesia. Approval seems to be taking quite a long time. The Jacobsen Report this week was stating that the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) to other countries in Asia is causing some drop popular for protein. ASF looks to end up being spreading instead of being controlled. Combine ASF with competitive vegetable protein prices and large animal protein products and it doesn't look feasible that prices will end up being moving any higher --- at least not really in the short run. The domestic market in the USA can be facing the same supply/demand scenario as Asia --- plenty of supply and not an excessive amount of demand.
No pre workout drink is currently forecasting higher prices. As offers been for the past few weeks, Peru is very quiet again - at least from a fishmeal point of view. The feeling on the next quota seems to be that it will be established at 2 million m/t or perhaps a small higher or even a little lower --- as normal, we all have been just guessing. There will be holidays in Peru on October 31 and November 01, so everyone is hoping for the brand new quota the week of November 04 when many people are back to function. Little or no home based business has been reported this week as we all wait for another quota. As MSI Ceres pointed out within their weekly report, the price trend is going to be set by the quota level - lower quota higher prices and higher quota lower prices. As I have pointed out before, the world way to obtain fishmeal is quite fixed while the demand for pet/aqua protein increases each year --- fixed supply and increasing demand appears to be to imply a continued long term trend to raised prices for fishmeal.
